… and a Serious U.S. Threat

” Dr. Jeff Masters believes Sandy has the potential to be a billion-dollar disaster for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic:

On Friday, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast and trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic. The Central Atlantic trough may be strong enough to pull Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the official NHC forecast, and the 06Z GFS, 00Z UKMET, 00Z Canadian, and 06Z HWRF models (00Z is 8 pm EDT, and 06Z is 2 am EDT.) However, an alternative solution, shown by the 00Z ECMWF, 06Z GFDL, and 06Z NOGAPS models, is for Sandy to get caught up by the trough approaching the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 – 70 mph. Such a storm would likely cause massive power outages and over a billion dollars in damage, as trees still in leaf take out power grids, and heavy rains and coastal storm surges create damaging flooding. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. A similar meteorological situation occurred in October 1991, when Hurricane Grace became absorbed by a Nor’easter, becoming the so-called “Perfect Storm” that killed 13 people and did over $200 million in damage in the Northeast U.S.

Depending on Sandy’s eventual track, strength and structure — all of which are very much in flux right now — there is some potential for this storm to bring a real nightmare scenario to the highly vulnerable New York City region, with storm surge and extremely high surf getting funneled into the harbor (at astronomical high tide, no less!). This is just a hypothetical at this point, and it probably won’t happen precisely that way, but it’s concerning to me that the scenario is on the table, and is one of many reasons that Sandy bears watching.”

A58-7fbCcAABT-1.png-large

” ANOTHER UPDATE: More from Geoff Fox:

I just took a look at the European (ECMWF) and GFS models. They’re our best predictors for medium range weather. Both are now predicting an East Coast strike for Hurricane Sandy. Obviously that is not good news.

The GFS brings landfall to Maine while the Euro hits New Jersey just south of New York City.

Let’s get real for a moment. Both of these models have varied greatly over the last few days. They have changed trajectories by hundreds of miles. There’s a big difference between striking Cape Cod and Asbury Park as the European model has suggested over the last day.

I am more concerned than I was yesterday. Both of today’s scenarios would affect Connecticut and, of course, we’re the compromise position between the two.

It’s still too early to go nuts, but it is the time to start thinking about what you wish you’d had on hand during Irene.

Do you use rechargeable batteries? Are they charged?

Do you have food in your freezer you’d like to start using now?

Are your prescriptions up-to-date?

New England is nothing more than a potential target for Hurricane Sandy. It is still too early to think its post-weekend location can be accurately forecast.

As we get closer we’ll know more. “

Related articles